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The defense will win the game this Saturday. It should be a very close game; probably six points or less, unless the game goes into overtime. If so, then the spread will most likely be three points or less. It would not be surprising if the game ended in overtime.

Statistics paint ever changing portraits because they change after each game. Prognostication, not inspired by the divine, requires tools. My yardstick is game statistics, and when comparing these two teams, it would be hard to find two who are more evenly matched. The difference is that Mt. SAC has a stronger offense and Palomar has a stronger defense.

It is true that Palomar, ranked 6th, lost two games during the regular season while Mt. SAC lost only one. But both Palomar losses were by three points and Palomar defeated Saddleback 27-21. Mt. SAC’s only loss was to Saddleback by ten points. Saddleback’s defense limited Mt. SAC’s offense to 264 yards; their season average is 419.9 yards per game. Saddleback limited Mt. SAC to 4-14 first downs and 1-3 fourth downs. Last Saturday against Bakersfield, Mt. SAC converted 7-19 third downs and chalked up 503 offensive yards.

Palomar cannot win if they allow Mt. SAC to put up those kinds of numbers.

If Palomar wants to win this game, the defense will have to play their best game of the year. The defense will have to score or force several turnovers and they must capitalize on said turnovers. Palomar will have to score on the ground as often as they score in the air: Mt. SAC’s defense allows more running points than passing points. And above all else, Palomar cannot turn the ball over.

If Mt. SAC wants to win this game, their offense will have to play their best game of the year. Palomar’s two quarterbacks cumulatively have 2020 yards. Mt. SAC’s starting quarterback, individually, has put up 2559 yards in the air. They have six receivers with more than ten receptions in 11 games and the best way for them to confuse the Palomar defense should be by spreading the passes around to as many receivers as possible. Their ground crew will have to take the pressure off and score one or more touchdowns. And above all else, Mt. SAC cannot turn the ball over.

Saddleback was able to stifle Mt. SAC’s offense when they played back in September. Mt. SAC was averaging 34 points per game before the loss. Since the Saddleback loss, (last seven games) their offense has averaged 48 points per game and their defense has allowed only 20.9 points per game. In Palomar’s last seven games they have scored an average of 32.4 points per game and allowed only 18.3.

On paper, Mt. SAC should win this game. Nevertheless, the reason I think Palomar will win cannot be measured by statistics. Palomar’s last two wins, against formidable opponents, was because of excellent coaching and because they are hungry. Napoleon Bonaparte said that “all the scholastic scaffolding falls, as a ruined edifice, before a single word: faith.” Translated to football vernacular - the hungry team wins.