There are many factors to take into account when you try to predict the winner of a football game. At best, it is an “educated” guess. For example, if a team scores an average of 35 points per game and their defense allows only 20 points per game, it does not truly reflect the relative strength of a team. Not all points are scored by the offense. More importantly, some conferences are stronger than others, so a win/loss record is analogous to comparing apples with oranges. Seven of the ten teams vying for the state championship this year have a 9-1 season record. LA Pierce is in a unique position. If they get past Mt. San Antonio College (Mt. SAC) in the first round, as unlikely as that may be, they still have to face a team that started the post season 9-1 in the second round AND there is a two out of three chance that they will play a team that started the post season 9-1 in the third round!

Nevertheless, you need some kind of yardstick to measure things, so we have used the win/loss and point for/point against method to make our predictions. We’ve also taken into account the relative strength of the conference from which the respective team plays.

In Southern California, Mt. SAC is the #1 seed and is hosting LA Pierce this Saturday. During the season, Mt. SAC scored an average of 39 points per game and allowed their opponents only 20 points per game. Pierce, the #8 seed, scored an average of 37 points per game while allowing their opponents to score 29. Pierce had a much easier schedule. Pierce’s main claim to fame this season was defeating and edging out Antelope Valley for the division title.and a shot at the state title. The results of this game will probably be extreme in one way or another. If Pierce does not upset Mt. SAC, Mt. SAC will probably blow Pierce out. Most likely, Mt. SAC will win this game going away.

Fullerton, #2 seed, is hosting LA Harbor, #7 seed. Fullerton’s stats seem to indicate that they had a strong defense and a solid offense. Fullerton scored an average of 36 points per game and held their opponents to 13 points per game this season. The numbers are a bit skewed with the 70-17 blowout at Moorpark College; nevertheless, this might be the team to beat this year. LA Harbor, on the other hand, averaged 47 points per game and allowed only 27 per game. These numbers are also skewed by the 72-0 blowout over Compton. Moreover, LAH is seeded seventh because they lost the last game of the season to San Bernardino who went 5-5 on the season. If there is a likely upset this Saturday in the playoffs, this will be the game. Harbor seems to have a stronger offense, but Fullerton seems to have a stronger defense. If the Fullerton defense can force at least three turnovers, and if their offense makes no mistakes, Fullerton should edge out LAH. Either way, this might be the most exciting game to watch this Saturday.

Cerritos, the #3 seed, and Palomar, #6, had the toughest schedules this season. Cerritos’ only loss this year was to Mt. SAC – in overtime – 27-26. Palomar slipped early in the season to Grossmont 29-26 and then lost to Fullerton 20-17. Both losses could have gone either way. Palomar also had to play Saddleback and Orange Coast, both of which are better teams than their records indicate. Cerritos scored an average of 40 points per game, allowing only 17 points per game, while Palomar scored an average of 32 points per game and allowed 16 points per game. The best defense will win this game, and if you noticed, one point separates them. The game could go either way, but the home field advantage gives Cerritos the edge.

The two remaining 9-1 teams facing each other are seeded fourth and fifth. They also had the easiest schedules. Bakersfield, the #4 seed, defeated Alan Hancock by a score of 31-24 early in the season. Bakersfield didn’t play anyone with a winning record except Hancock. Hancock didn’t play anyone except Bakersfield. Moreover, Bakersfield’s only loss was to El Camino who had a season record of 8-2 and won’t have a chance at the state title because they were edged out by two teams in their division with 9-1 records: Mt. SAC and Cerritos. Bakersfield scored an average of 39 points per game and allowed only 14, compared to Hancock who put up 37 points per game and allowed 20. They are evenly matched, but in truth, it probably doesn’t matter who wins the first round in this game because the winner will more likely than not face Mt. SAC in the second round. LA Pierce, Bakersfield and Alan Hancock are indisputably the weakest three teams in the division. It is highly unlikely that any of them could get past Mt. SAC. If, on the other hand, Pierce actually upsets Mt. SAC, then the underdogs will truly be represented in the second round of the playoffs. Bakersfield has a slight edge in this game because they defeated Hancock once and they have home field advantage.

The reason Northern California is represented by only two teams in the state championship is beyond the scope of this article. The short, simple reason is that only the two best teams from the north make it to finals. San Mateo is the #1 ranked team in the state and should easily defeat Reedley. San Mateo’s offense averaged 44 points per game. Reedley, who is 6-4 on the season, only managed an average of 23 points of offense per game. Defensively, both teams allowed only 20 points per game; however, Reedley’s schedule was somewhat less rigorous than San Mateo’s. Reedley could upset San Mateo if some strange, unpredicted planetary alignment occurs. Who knows, stranger things have happened.